425 Furlong Road
Sebastopol, CA 95472
707 823 1726
Department of Philosophy
Sonoma State University
Rohnert Park, CA 94928-3609
707 664 2505 fax
707 664 4042 office
1996- Sonoma State University
Philosophy and Hutchins School of Liberal Studies
1995-1996 Max-Planck Institut für Wissenschaftsgeschichte, Berlin
1990-1995 Indiana University, Bloomington
Department of History and Philosophy of Science and
Department of Philosophy
1992-1993 Universiteit van Amsterdam
Department of Philosophy
1989-1990 Indiana University, Bloomington
Department of History and Philosophy of Science
Visiting Assistant Professor
1984 - 1990 SUNY at Buffalo
Department of Philosophy
1985-1986 Universiteit van Groningen
Department of Philosophy
ZWO Research Associate
1983 -1984 UC San Diego
Department of Philosophy
Visiting Assistant Professor
1982 -1983 Zentrum für Interdisziplinäre Forschung, Universität Bielefeld
Alexander von Humboldt-Stipendiat
Fellow of a Research Group on the "Probabilistic Revolution"
1970-1976 Universiteit van Amsterdam
Institute for Research in the Foundations of the Exact Sciences Department of Philosophy.
Assistant in Logic and Philosophy of Science
Referee for NSF Grant poposals, Erkenntnis, Synthese, Behavioral and Brain Sciences, Studia Logica, British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, Noûs, Psychological Bulletin, Annals of Science.
Review writer for Mathematical Reviews
Philosophy of Science
Philosophy of Technology
Introduction to Philosophy
History of Modern Philosophy
History of Analytical Philosophy
Science and Metaphysics
Basic and Intermediate Logic
Science, Technology, and Human Values
Set theory, Model theory
Inductive Logic/Philosophy of Statistics
Statistical Thinking as a Style of Public Reasoning
Philosophy of the Natural Sciences
History of Statistics and Probability Theory
History of the Philosophy of Science
Formal Methods in the Philosophy of Science
Philosophy of Experimentation
Science and Culture
History and Epistemology of Scientific Instruments
Philosophy of Probability
Confirmation Theory/Concepts of Evidence
Use of Probability in the Physical Sciences
Statistical Paradigm in the Social Sciences
Philosophy of Science: the future of science; science and nature/the body, philosophy of experimentation and data analysis, epistemology of scientific instruments, foundations of statistics and probability theory, stochastic explanation
History of Science: the scientific voyages and empire building, history of cartography, history of the interaction between the empirical sciences, data analysis and probability theory since 1740; graphic representation of data; history of scientific instruments
History of the Philosophy of Science: history of concepts of evidence, the history of the relation between science, religion and art
Epistemology: non-foundational epistemology, knowing-how, knowledge and agency, group knowledge
Philosophy of Language: language as public and supra-personal, logic based on dialogue analysis
1977-1982 Stanford University, Department of Philosophy Ph.D., June 1982 (Special Program in Logic, Philosophy of Science, and Philosophy of Language)
1976-1977 University of Warsaw, Department of Philosophy
Postdoctoral fellow in Philosophy of Science
1970-1976 Universiteit van Amsterdam, Institute for Research in the Foundations of the Exact Sciences, Department of Philosophy M.A., August 1976 in Philosophy with Mathematics (cum laude)
1968-1970 Universiteit van Amsterdam, Department of Philosophy
B.A., August 1970 in Philosophy with Mathematical
1961-1968 Pascal Lyceum, Amsterdam. Gymnasium b
- "The use of graphics in scientific inference", University of Groningen, Department of Philosophy (4/4)
- "The Doings in Inferring", University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Department of Philosophy (5/15) and University of Toronto, Department of Philosophy (12/2)
- "Can Hypothesis Testing be Saved?", University of Amsterdam, Department of Psychology (8/24)
- "Use of Visual Judgment in Classifying Eocene Nummulitids ", SUNY at Buffalo, Department of Geography (10/21)1988
-"The Doings in Inferring", University of Washington, Department of Philosophy (3/11) and SUNY at Buffalo, Department of Philosophy (5/6)
-"The Subtle Reasonings of Thomas Bayes, I and II", University of Washington, Department of Statistics (3/29 and 4/12)
-"Internalisme vs Externalisme in de Kennistheorie", University of Amsterdam, Department of Philosophy (5/10)
-Commentary on Peter Gay, E.H. Gombrich, and Evelyn Fox Keller, Erasmianum Ascension Conference on the "Three Cultures", the Netherlands (6/11-14)1989
-"Naturalizing Statistical Inference", Indiana University, Department of History and Philosophy of Science (1/23)
- "Virtual Witnesses: Hearsay or Worse? ", XVIIIth International Congress of History of Science, (8/1-10), Hamburg and München
- "The Philosophy of Scientific Instruments", Indiana University, Department of History and Philosophy of Science (11/3)
- "Statistical Thinking as a Source of Post-Cartesian Epistemology", University of South Carolina, Department of Philosophy and Department of Statistics (12/8)1990
- "Context of Justification and Context of Application", SBS, IU Bloomington (11/?)
- "Theory of the Apparatus and Theory of the Phenomena: The Case of Low Dose Electron Microscopy". PSA, Minneapolis (10/20)
- "Probabilism and Statisticism in the 19th c." HSS, Seattle (10/26)1991
- "Forward Looking Bayesianism" Dorling Conference, University of Amsterdam, August 1991
- "Automation in instrumentation: the changing place of the observer in the nineteenth century." HSS meetings, Madison Wisconsin, November 2 1991
- "Falsification, Significance Testing, and Verisimilitude" Inductive Logic Workshop Groningen (11/ 13)1992
- "Tip imaging in scanning tunneling microscopy: the intrusion of observation by theory", Histories/Philosophies of Science, The Indiana Workshops, 1992-93, meeting on "Instrumental Trajectories", (4/4)
- "What is Statistical Thinking." Statistical Consortium, IU, (5)
- Panel Contribution, Histories/Philosophies of Science, The Indiana Workshops, 1992-93, meeting on "Changing Concepts of Evidence in Early Modern Science" Workshop, HPSC, IU (11/7)1993
- Commentary on a paper by Hans Radder, "Experimenting in the Natural Sciences. A Philosophical Approach", Science and Technology Dynamics Conference 1993, Amsterdam (6/ 23-25)
"German resistance to sampling around 1900: 'Types' and the Inverse Bernoulli Theorem", London School of Economics (6/ 29)
- "Proprio Marte: Johann Lambert's Bodily Inference" HSS Meetings November 1993, Santa Fe, NM.
- "Graphing empirical data and the 'coup d'oeil militaire' in late 18th century physical science", HPSC, Indiana University (12/3)
- Comments as Chair at the Heinrich Hertz Conference, "Heinrich Hertz (1857-1894) Classical Physicist, Modern Philosopher" An Interdisciplinary Conference at the University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (3/20)
- "What do smart instruments tell us about theory-ladenness of observation?", Erasmus University, Rotterdam (6/2)1995
- "Lorenz Krüger and the Relation between History and Philosophy of Science", In: Memorial-Colloquium Lorenz Krüger. Max-Planck-Institut für Wissenschaftsgeschichte (9/25)
- Comments on Dorinda Outram's Paper "Being Perseus: Or the explorer's body and Enlightenment geographical knowledge. Colloquium Abteilung II, Max Planck Institute for the History of Science (11/18)
- "Coup d'oeil and proprio marte: Bodily aspects of reasoning in Johann Lambert's graphical representations"Colloquium Abteilung II, Max Planck Institute for the History of Science (12/13)1996
- "Two ways of looking: coup d'oeil and point de vue --From Johann Lambert to Alexander von Humboldt". Colloquium Institut für Wissenschaftsgeschichte, Universität Göttingen (4/30)
- "The disunity of data-analysis". Dis/unity of Physics Conference, Technische Universität, Berlin (6/7)
- "In praise of unity." Seminar on Revolutions in Science, Max Planck Institute for the History of Science (6/24)
- "The instrumental life of Alexander von Humboldt,". Institute wide colloquium talk Max Planck Institute for the History of Science (7/3)
"Das Individuum denkt nicht, die Gemeinschaft denkt". Seminar on Revolutions in Science, Max Planck Institute for the History of Science (7/5)
- "What motivated the frequentism of John Stuart Mill and John Venn? Comments with a graph of the growth of 19th c. probabilistic literature." Max Planck Institute for the History of Science (9/25)
- "Gablik/Merchant on the Objectification of Nature/Art." Presentation Sonoma State University (11/23)1997
- Chair of session on The Aesthetics of Nature. American Society for Aesthetics, Pacific Division, April 2-4, 1997, Asimolar (4/4)
- "The instrumental life of Alexander von Humboldt," Invited talk Alexander von Humboldt Conference, Universität Göttingen, May
- Chair of Session on Science and Agriculture, History of Science meetings, San Diego1998
1976a 'Eliminability in a Cardinal'. Studia Logica 35: 71-89
1976b 'Two Suggestions for Ramsey-reducts of Infinite Theories'. Philosophy of Science 43: 575-577
1976c Ramsey Elimination. Unpublished M.A.thesis. Universiteit van Amsterdam. Instituut voor Grondslagenonderzoek der Exacte Wetenschappen
1978a Dutch translation of Karl Popper, Conjectures and Refutations: The Growth of Scientific Knowledge. Boom, Meppel
1978b Dutch translation of Frits Staal, Exploring Mysticism. Het Spectrum, Utrecht
1980 Dutch translation of Ian Hacking, Why does Language Matter to Philosophy? Boom, Meppel
1982a Randomization in Experimental Design. Ph.D. dissertation, available from University Microfilms, Ann Arbor Advisors : Ian Hacking, Patrick Suppes, Nancy Cartwright
1982b 'A Bayesian Argument in Favor of Randomization'. Philosophy of Science Association Proceedings 1982, Vol.1:159-168
1983a 'Experimental Randomization and the Likelihood Principle' (abstract). 7th International Congress of Logic, Methodology and Philosophy of Science, Salzburg, Austria. Vol. 1: 263-265
1983b ' "True Value" and Independent Measurements in Comparative Experiments'. In: Heidelberger, Michael, et al. (eds.). 1983 Probability since 1800 : interdisciplinary studies of scientific development : workshop at the Centre for Interdisciplinary Research of the University of Bielefeld, September 16-20, 1982 / edited by Michael Heidelberger, Lorenz Kruger and Rosemarie Rheinwald. Bielefeld : Universitat Bielefeld: B. Kleine Verlag
1986 'D'Alembert and the Maturity of Chances'. Studies in the History and Philosophy of Science 17: 327-349
1987a 'Gibbard on "Rationality and Human Evolution" '. In N. Garver and P. Hare (eds.), Rationality and Naturalism, Prometheus: Buffalo, pp. 235-240
1987b 'Brams and Kilgour on "Optimal Deterrence " (with correction) '. In N. Garver and P. Hare (eds.), Rationality and Naturalism, Prometheus: Buffalo, pp. 267-273
1987c 'The Objectification of Observation: Measurement and Statistical Methods in the Nineteenth Century'. In L. Krüger, L.J. Daston, and M. Heidelberger (eds.), The Probabilistic Revolution, Vol.1: Ideas in History. MIT Press: Cambridge, pp. 261-285 (Collection got the 1987 Prize for Best New Professional and Scholarly Publishing Book in the Social and Behavioral Sciences from the Association of American Publishers; Reviewed by J. T. Austin, JASA, 1988, 83:903-904; I. Grattan-Guinness, Annals of Science 1988, 45: 643-646; I. J. Good, Nature, 1988, 332: 405-406; Stephen G. Brush. Physics Today, April. 1988: 87-88. Sandy L. Zabell. Journal of the History of Social and Behavioral Research)
1987d Review of Nicholas Rescher, The Limits of Science. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 38: 392-396
1987e Review of Robert J. Ackermann, Data, Instruments, and Theory. British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 38: 399-404
1988d (with Ivo Schneider) German Translation of excerpt from Jan de Witt's "Waerdye van Lyf-Renten. Naer proportie van Los-Renten" (1671). In: Schneider, Ivo. (ed.) 1988. Die Entwicklung der Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie von den Anfängen bis 1933. Einführungen und Texte. Darmstadt: Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft.
1989a The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday life. A History of the Interaction between the Sciences and Probabilistic and Statistical Ideas from 1780 till 1950. Co-authored with Lorenz Krüger, Lorraine Daston, Ted Porter , John Beatty, and Gerd Gigerenzer Cambridge University Press, "Ideas in Context" Series, eds. Wolf Lepenies, Richard Rorty, J.B. Schneewind and Quentin Skinner (Reviewed by Glen Shafer in Science 247: 225 (1/12/90); E. Seneta in Mathematical Reviews 91d:0004; Geoffrey R. Loftus in Contemporary Psychology, 36 (1991): 102-105; Davis Baird in Isis, 1991, 82: 103-105; Peter Guttorp in JASA June 1990, p. 592; Anon. in La Recherche 236, October 1991, p 1201; I. Grattan-Guinness in Annals of Science 1989, 46: 636; Vito Signorile in Hist. Hum. Sci. 1990, 3: 279-86; J. Franklin in Hist. Eur. Ideas, 1990, 12: 572-73; M. J. S. Hodge in Brit. J. Hist. Sci, 1991, 24: 124-126; Geoffrey R. Loftus in Contemporary Psychology, 36 (1991): 102-105)
1989j "Shapin and Schaffer on Virtual Witnessing." XVIIIth International Congress of History of Science Abstracts, R3-3
1990e Japanese Translation of Swijtink 1987c 'The Objectification of Observation: Measurement and Statistical Methods in the Nineteenth Century'.
1990f Paperback and second corrected edition of 1989a The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday life.
1990g Theory of the Apparatus and Theory of the Phenomena: The Case of Low Dose Electron Microscopy. Philosophy of Science Associations, Proceedings 1990, pp. 573-584.
1993a Review of Engelhard Weigl. 1990 Instrumente der Neuzeit. Die Entdeckung der modernen Wirklichkeit. Stuttgart: Metzler. Isis, 84(2): 381-382
1993b Review of Ida H. Stamhuis. 1989. 'Cijfers en Aequaties' en 'Kennis der Staatskrachten'. Statistiek in Nederland in de negentiende eeuw. Amsterdam: Rodopi. Centaurus 36: 177-179
1994a Probability and Statistics in Agronomy. The Companion Encyclopedia of the History and Philosophy of the Mathematical Sciences, edited by Ivor Grattan-Guinness. Routledge (London)
1994b Probability and Statistics in Mechanics. The Companion Encyclopedia of the History and Philosophy of the Mathematical Sciences, edited by Ivor Grattan-Guinness. Routledge (London)
1995 Six Entries (Beth Theorem, Categorical theory, including categorical-in-power and elementary equivalence, Craig Theorem, Model theory, including model, Satisfiable set, Standard model, including non-standard model) for the Cambridge Dictionary of Philosophy, edited by Robert Audi. New York : Cambridge University Press.
1995 Article on Beth's Definition Theorem and Craig's Interpolation Theorem for the Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy.
1996 "Lorenz Krüger and the Relation between History and Philosophy of Science", In: Memorial-Colloquium Lorenz Krüger. Max-Planck-Institut für Wissenschaftsgeschichte
1997 Bessel, Friedrich Wilhelm. The Biographical Encyclopedia of Science. Pasadena: Salem Press
1997 Review of Scientific Practice: Theories and Stories of Doing Physics, ed. Jed Z. Buchwald (University of Chicago, 1995). Research in Philosophy and Technology
1998 Bessel, Friedrich Wilhelm. The Biographical Encyclopedia of Mathematics. Pasadena: Salem Press
1998 "A plea for Popperian significance testing. Peer commentary of Siu L. Chow. Statistical Significance: Rationale, Validity and Utility. London Sage Behavioral and Brain Sciences (BBS), 21(2),
1998 "How important are individual scientists?" Research in Philosophy and Technology, 17, 321ff
1999 Das Reich des Zufalls. Wissen zwischen Wahrscheilichkeiten, Häufigkeiten und Unschärfen. Spektrum Akademischer Verlag: Heidelberg, Berlin. Co-authored with Lorenz Krüger, Lorraine Daston, Ted Porter , John Beatty, and Gerd Gigerenzer. German translation of The Empire of Chance: How Probability Changed Science and Everyday life. (1989a)
1999 Error Theory. Reader's Guide to the History of Science. Arne Hessenbruch (ed.). London: Fitzroy Dearborn
1999 Probability. Reader's Guide to the History of Science. Arne Hessenbruch (ed.). London: Fitzroy Dearborn
1999 Essay Review of Norton Wise (ed.). The Values of Precision (Princeton University Press, 1995) and M. Power (ed.), Accounting and Science: Natural Inquiry and Commercial Reason (Cambridge University Press, 1996) for Studies in History and Philosophy of Science
1999 "A history of methods." In: Herman J. Ader, and Gideon J. Mellenbergh (eds.). Research Methodology. Defining, Designing and Modeling in the Life, Behavioral and Social Sciences. Thousand Oaks, Calif. : Sage Publications
2000 Lambert's Graphs: Geometrical Analysis, Practical Geometry, and Error Theory in 18th c. Natural Science (Bookproject)
1988a Review of Ellery Eells and Elliott Sober, "Common Causes and Decision Theory" Philosophy of Science, 53 (1986) pp 223-245. Mathematical Reviews 88j:03013
1988b Review of Tony Lawson, "The Context of Prediction (and the Paradox of Confirmation)" British Journal for the Philosophy of Science (1985), 393-407. Mathematical Reviews 88k: 03042
1988c Review of Ferdinant Schoeman, "Cohen on inductive probability and the law of evidence (with a discussion by L. Jonathan Cohen)" Philosophy of Science 54 (1987), no. 1, 76-97. Mathematical Reviews 88k:03043
1989a Review of Charles S. Chihara, "Some Problems for Bayesian Confirmation Theory" British Journal for the Philosophy of Science, 38 (1987) pp 551-560. Mathematical Reviews 89a:03047
1989b Review of George N. Schlesinger 1986. "Relevance" Theoria 52, no. 1-2, 57-67. Mathematical Reviews 89a:03051
1989c Review of John Bigelow, and Robert Pargetter, "An analysis of indefinite probability statements" Synthese 73 (1987), no. 2, 361-370.Mathematical Reviews 89b:03041
1989d Review of Gérard Jorland, "The Saint Petersburg Paradox 1713-1937" L. Krüger, L. J. Daston, and M. Heidelberger (eds.), The Probabilistic Revolution, Vol.1: Ideas in History. MIT Press: Cambridge, pp. 157-190. Mathematical Reviews 89d:01033
1989e Review of: Lorenz Krüger, "The Slow Rise of Probabilism: Philosophical Arguments in the Nineteenth Century" In L.Krüger, L.J. Daston, and M. Heidelberger (eds.), The Probabilistic Revolution, Vol.1: Ideas in History. MIT Press: Cambridge, pp. 59-89. Mathematical Reviews 89f:01036
1989f Review of Jean-Pierre Cléro, "Remarques philosophiques sur l'éssai de Bayes "En vue de résoudre un problème de la doctrine des chances"." Cahiers d'Histoire et de Philosophie des Sciences, Nouvelle Série N° 18 (1987), 1-32. Mathematical Reviews 89i:01035
1989g Review of Ivan Kramosil, "A note on nonaxiomatizability of independence relations generated by certain probabilistic structures". Kybernetika (Prague) 24, no. 6, 439-446. Mathematical Reviews 89i:03043
1989h Review of T. V. Reeves, "A theory of probability" British Journal forPhilosophy of Science 39 (1988), 161-182. Mathematical Reviews 89k:6005
1990a Review of E. Seneta, "Silhouettes in early Australian statistics." Austral. J. Statist, 30 (B) (1988), 2-22. Mathematical Reviews 90a:01084
1990b Review of Daniel N. Osherson, Michael Stob, and Scott Weinstein. "Mechanical learners pay a price for Bayesianism." Journal of Symbolic Logic, 53 (1988), 1245-1251. Mathematical Reviews 90a:03065
1990c Review of Henri Rouanet, "Probabilisons un peu " L'à-peu-près (Urbino, 1986), 165-169, Hist. Sci. Tech., École Hautes Études Sci. Soc., Paris, 1988. Mathematical Reviews 90d:01086
1990d Review of Edward Erwin and Harvey Siegel, "Is Confirmation Differential?" British Journal Philosophy of Science 40 (1989), 105-119. Mathematical Reviews 90d:03040
1990e Review of Jordan Howard Sobel, "Partition-Theorems for Causal Decision Theories." Philosophy of Science, 56 (1989), 70-93. Mathematical Reviews 90e:03021
1990f Review of S.V. Bhave, "Inconsistencies in the Argument leading to the Rule of Succession." Statistics and Probability Letters 7 (1989), 435-440. Mathematical Reviews 90j:60007
1991a Review of Ilkka Niiniluoto, "Probability, Possibility, and Plenitude." Probability and Causality, (Reidel, Dordrecht: 1988), pp. 91-108. Mathematical Reviews 91f:03039
1991b Review of H. Breny, "Les origines de la théorie des probabilités." Revue des Questions Scientifiques 159 (4) (1988), 453-477. Mathematical Reviews 91:g:01002
1991c Review of Edith Sylla, "Political, moral, and economic decisions and the origins of the mathematical theory of probability: the case of Jacob Bernoulli's The Art of Conjecturing." Acting under Uncertainty: Multidisciplinary Conceptions, (Kluwer, Boston: 1990), pp. 19-44. Mathematical Reviews 91h:01018
1991d Review of Reinhardt Suck, "Random variables and qualitative probability representations." Mathematical Psychology in Progress (Springer, Berlin), pp. 85-98. Mathematical Reviews 91h:60002
1991e Review of David F. Parkhurst, "Statistical hypothesis tests and statistical power in pure and applied science." Acting under Uncertainty: Multidisciplinary Conceptions, (Kluwer, Boston: 1990), pp. 181-201. Mathematical Reviews 91k:03055
1992a Review of F. P. Ramsey, "Weight or the value of knowledge. With a preamble by Nils-Eric Sahlin." British j. Philos. Sci. 41 (1990), no. 1, 1-4. Mathematical Reviews 92e:01080
1992b Review of Theodore Hailperin. "Probability logic in the twentieth century." Hist. Philos. Logic 12 (1991) no. 1, 71-110. Mathematical Reviews 92j:01044
1993a Review of Barry Gower, "Hume on probability." British Journal for Philosophy of Science 42 (1991), 1-19. Mathematical Reviews 93a:01023
1993b Review of Deborah G. Mayo. "Did Pearson reject the Neyman-Pearson philosophy of statistics?" Synthese 90 (1992), 233-262. Mathematical Reviews 93b:03033
1993c Review of John Maynard Keynes. 1921, 1988. A Treatise on Probability. Paperback edition 1988. Mathematical Reviews 93c:01050
1993d Review of Ellery Eels. 1991. Probabilistic Causality. Cambridge: CUP. Mathematical Reviews 93e:01005
1993e Review of Richard Jeffrey. 1992. Probability and the art of judgement. Cambridge: CUP. Mathematical Reviews 93e:01006
1993f Review of G. P. Klimov and Ida C. Rajaonera. "Décisions statistique invariantes: invariance et théorie fiducielle." Cahiers de CERO, 33 (1991), 207-246 Mathematical Reviews 93e:62013
1993g Review of Robert Ineichen. "Aus der Vorgeschichte der Mathematischen Statistik." Elem. Math. 47 (1992), no. 3, 93-107. Mathematical Reviews 93h:01004
1993h Review of Teddy Seidenfeld, "R. A. Fisher's fiducial argument and Bayes' theorem." Statistical Science 7 (1992), no. 3, 358-368. Mathematical Reviews 93j:62009
1994a Review of Eberhard Knobloch, "Historical aspects of the foundations of error theory." The space of mathematics (San Sebastiàn, 1990), 253-279, Found. Comm. Cogn., de Gruyter, Berlin, 1992. Mathematical Reviews 94a:01023
1994b Review of G. P. Klimov and Ida C. Rajaonera, "Décisions statistiques invariantes: invariance et théorie fiducielle. II. Familles conjuguées de probabilités." Cahiers Centre Études Rech. Opér. 34 (1992), no. 1, 69-89. Mathematical Reviews 94b:62003
1994c Review of Ehrenfried Walther von Tschirnhaus. "Methodus auferendi omnes terminos intermedios ex data equatione." Nieuw Arch. Wisk. (4) 11 (1993), no. 1, 67-83. Mathematical Reviews 94c:01015
1994d Review of R. E. Kalman, "Probability and Science." Nieuw Arch. Wisk. (4) 11 (1993), no. 1, 51-66. Mathematical Reviews 94d:01002
1994e Review of Hugues Leblanc and Peter Roeper, "Les fonctions de probabilité: la question de leur définissabilité récursive." Dialogue 31 (1992), no. 4, 643-659. Mathematical Reviews 94d:03039a
1994f Review of Hugues Leblanc and Peter Roeper, "Probability functions: the matter of their recursive definability." Philosophy of science 59 (1992), no. 3, 372-388. Mathematical Reviews 94d:03039b
1994g Review of Yvon Gauthier. "La logique interne de la théorie des probabilités." Dialogue 32 (1993), no. 1, 95-103. Mathematical Reviews 94g:03044
1994h Review of Georg J. W. Dorn. "Popper's laws of the excess of the probability of the conditional over the conditional probability." Conceptus 26 (1992/93), no. 67, 3-61. Mathematical Reviews 94h:03044
1995 Review of G. P. Klimov and Ida C. Rajaonera, "Décisions statistiques invariantes: invariance et théorie fiducielle. III. Application aux problèmes de régression multivariés." Cahiers Centre Études Rech. Opér. 35 (1993), no. 1-2, 31-85. Mathematical Reviews 95a:62002
1996a Review of David Papineau, "The virtues of randomization." British Journal for the Philosophy of Science 45 (1994), 437-450. Mathematical Reviews 96d:00007
1996b Review of E. Seneta. "Carl Liebermeister's hypergeometric tails." Historia Mathematica, 21, (1994), 4, 453-462. Mathematical Reviews 96d:01023
1996c Review of Ernest W. Adams, "Updating on conditional information." IEEE Transactions of Systems, Man, and Cybernetics, vol. 24(12) (1994), 1708-1713. Mathematical Reviews 96d:030027
1996d Review of Michel Armatte, "Robert Gibrat et la loi de l'effet proportionnel." Math. Inform. Sci. Humaines, 33 (129) (1995), 5-35. Mathematical Reviews 96e:010016
1996e Review of O. B. Sheynin. 1995, "Density curves in the theory of errors." Archive for History of Exact Sciences 49, no. 2 (1995), 163-196. Mathematical Reviews 96i:01004
1996f Review of Marc Parmentier (ed.), G. W. Leibniz, L'Estime des Apparences. 21 Manuscrits de Leibniz, sur Les Probabilités, la Théorie des Jeux, L'Espérance de Vie. Paris: Vrin, 1995. Mathematical Reviews 96m:01009
1996g Review of Norbert Meusnier, 1995. La passe de l'espérance: l'émergence d'une mathématique du probable au XVIIème siècle. Math, Inform. Sci. Humaines 33, No 131, 5-28 Mathematical Reviews 96m:01010
1996h Review of O. B. Sheynin. 1995, "Helmert's work in the theory of errors." Archive for History of Exact Sciences 49, no. 1, 73-104. Mathematical Reviews 96m:01014
1996i Review of Clark Glymour, Peter Spirtes and Richard Scheines. . In place of regression. In: Paul Humphreys (ed.), Patrick Suppes: Scientific Philosopher, vol. 1, Amsterdam: Kluwer, 339-365. Mathematical Reviews 96m:03007
1996j Review of F. Hallyn, "Kepler, Snell, and the law of refraction". Mededelingen van de Koninklijke Academie voor Wetenschappen van België 56, no. 2, 119-134. Mathematical Reviews 96m:01008
1996k Review of Carl Friedrich Gauss, Theory of the combination of observations least subject to error: part one, part two, supplement = Theoria combinationis observationum erroribus minimus obnoxiae : pars prior, pars posterior, supplementum / by Carl Friedrich Gauss ; translated by G.W. Stewart. Philadelphia : Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 1995. (Classics in applied mathematics ; 11). Mathematical Reviews 96
1997a Review of Chuaqui, Rolando. 1994. "Random sequences and hypotheses tests". In: Paul Humphreys (ed.), Patrick Suppes: Scientific Philosopher, vol. 1, Amsterdam: Kluwer, 63-85. Mathematical Reviews 97a:03032
1997b Review of Alan Hájek, "Triviality on the cheap?" In: Ellery Eells and Brian Skyrms (eds.). 1994. Probability and conditionals : belief revision and rational decision. Cambridge : Cambridge University Press, 113-140. Mathematical Reviews 97c:03076
1997c Review of Ivo Schneider, "Die Rückführung des allgemeinen auf den Sonderfall - eine Neubetrachtung des Grenzwertsatzes für binomiale Verteilungen von Abraham de Moivre." History of Mathematics, 263-275, Academic Press, San Diego, CA, 1996. Mathematical Reviews 97d:01014
1997d Review of Jos Uffink, "Can the maximum entropy principle be explained as a consistency requirement?" Stud. Hist. Phil. Sci. B Stud. Hist. Philos. Modern Phys. 26 (1995), no. 3, 223-261. Mathematical Reviews 97d:01020
1997e Review of Patrick Maher, "Subjective and objective confirmation; with a reply by Peter Achinstein." Philosophy of Science, 63 (1996), no. 2, 149-182. Mathematical Reviews 97i:03015
1998a Review of R. E. Kalman, "Probability in the real world as a system attribute". CWI Quarterly, 9(3). 1996, 181-204. Mathematical Reviews 98d:60005
1998b Review of Erik Weber, "Comment construit-on une explication déductive-nomologique?" Dialectica 50 (1996), no. 3, 183-203. Mathematical Reviews 98i:03019
1998c Review of Patrizia Berti, Eugenio Regazzini, and Pietro Rigo, "Well-calibrated, coherent forecasting systems." Teor. Veroyatnost. i. Primenen. 42 (1997), no. 1, 144-168. Mathematical Reviews 98j:62001
1998d Review of Walter Kirchherr, Ming Li, and Paul Vitányi, "The miraculous universal distribution." Mathematical Intelligencer 19 (1997), no. 4, 7-15. Mathematical Reviews 98m:00015
1999a Review of Ivars Peterson. 1998. The jungles of randomness : a mathematical safari. New York : John Wiley & Sons. Mathematical Reviews 99b:00002
1999b Review of Isaac Levi, "Caution and nonmonotonic inference." Knowledge and inquiry: essays on Jaakko Hintikka's epistemology and philosophy of science, 101-115, Poznan Stud. Philos. Sci. Humanities, 51, Rodopi, Amsterdam, 1997. Mathematical Reviews 99b:030035
1999c Review of Oscar B. Sheynin. The History of the Theory of Errors. Deutsche Hochschulschriften 1118, Hüansel-Hohenhausen, Engelsbach, 1996. 180 pp. Mathematical Reviews 96d:01004
1999d Review of Oscar B. Sheynin. "The theory of probability: its definition and its relation to statistics." Archive for History of Exact Sciences 52, no. 2 (1998), 99-108. Mathematical Reviews 96d:01005
1999e Review of Judy L. Klein. Statistical visions in time. A history of time series ananlysis, 1662-1938. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, 1997. Mathematical Reviews 99h: 01005
1999f Review of Oscar B. Sheynin. "Stochastic thinking in the Bible and the Talmud." Annals of Science, 55 (1998), 2, 185-198. Mathematical Reviews 99h:01045
2000a Review of Oscar B. Sheynin. 1999. "The discovery of the principle of least squares." Historia Scientiarum (2), 8(3), 249-264. . Mathematical Reviews 2000d:01014
Lambert's Graphs: Geometrical Analysis, Practical Geometry, and Error Theory in 18th c. Natural Science
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Introduction. Lambert's Innovation in Graphic Representation of Empirical Data. The role of his hands and eyes in the production of the graphs. The problem of objectivity.
Chapter 2: Lambert's Graphs. A comprehensive discussion of all of Lambert's empirical graphs, the texts around them, including a description of how they were reproduced in the Acta Helvetica, the Mémoires de l'Académie Royale des Sciences et de Belles-Lettres de Berlin de l'Année, etc.
Chapter 3: The three sources of Lambert's Innovation: Geometrical Analysis, Practical Geometry, and Error Theory
Chapter 4: Geometry in Mechanics: Newton on the Continent
Chapter 5: The Tradition of Practical Geometry, and of Geometry on Paper
Chapter 6: The Mensula Praetoriae, or Plane Table: a case of seeming instrumental regress
Chapter 7: Coup d'Oeil Militaire: Military Carthography
Chapter 8: Deterministic Error Theory : Simpson, Bougeur and Marinoni
Chapter 9: Random Error in Lambert
Chapter 10: How it could come together
Chapter 11: The Reception of Lambert's Graphs: Rigor meets Fertility
Chapter 12 Influence: Lambert in Great Britain
Proprio Marte: Johann Lambert's Bodily Inference
The Swiss/German scientist Johann Heinrich Lambert (1728-1777) was one of the first to add to his publications graphic representations of experimental and observational data. He argues, among others, that such graphs [planches] allow to see in one glance [d'un seul coup d'oeil] the results of many observations. Some of his graphs are of a particular interest since they bring up the role hand-eye coordination may play in scientific inference. In his Theorie der Zuverlässigkeit der Beobachtungen und Versuche of 1765, he suggest that, if theory does not suggest a theoretical curve to be fitted to the data, the experienced scientist may draw by free hand, proprio Marte [by one's own prowess, an expression derived from the name of the Roman god of war], a curve that follows the general trend of the observed points. Lambert's graphical representations and free-hand technique were not immediately taken over by his contemporaries; only starting in the 1820 do we find an increasing use of graphical methods in published writing, although free-hand drawings rarely leave the scientist's private note-book.
Using a study of eighteenth century geometry books, I will show how Lambert's innovations are in the tradition of "practical geometry on paper." This was a technique used by surveyors to determine the area of a field or to divide a field in a number of pieces set by contract. Thus, using a special instrument, a scale drawing of the field was made on paper, and constructions and measurements were then made on the paper and projected back to the field. A point of dispute in this was the use of experienced judgment as opposed to mathematical instruments. Can the surveyor use what was called the "coup d'oeil militaire," a capacity of sound geographic judgment, presumably especially enjoyed by military draught men?
I argue, accordingly, that Lambert brought the "coup d'oeil militaire" to the scientific data-on-paper. This raised deeper questions about what kind of mathematics can be used in science (geometry vs. analysis) and the appropriateness of his techniques for what tried to establish itself as emerging objectivity. Is the curve drawn by free-hand a mathematical object? Is the process of forming judgments based on visual inspection of a drawing proper scientific procedure?
I end by arguing that only in the 1820s, among those scientists that accepted the distinction between the context of discovery and the context of justification, graphic techniques could be used without fear as part of the process of discovery. John Herschel (1792-1871) introduced this distinction, but not the terminology, in his 1830 A Preliminary Discourse on the Study of Natural Philosophy to allow for the Hypothetical Method, and it was Herschel who used free-hand drawing in a 1833 study of the orbits of revolving stars. [Read at HSS Meetings November 1993, Santa Fe, NM]
The Instrumental Life of Alexander von Humboldt
["How did Alexander von Humboldt's instruments shape his personal experience? Although we all have an instrumental life, Humboldt's was a particularly rich life that stands out for various reasons. Not only did he gather so many instruments around him at a time when doing this in his own culture was contested, he also took these instruments as valuable companions on travels to distant and uninhabitable lands, far from the place he called home. Can we discern in his life with his instruments the intended usage, the non-intended consequence, and the fetishtic obsession? Humboldt traveled in regions where moist and aridity, cold and heat, and insects put all his tools at risk and where the local inhabitants did not have the habits, attitudes, and skills that could support an instrumental life.
How then was Humboldt able to sustain his instrumental life under those difficult circumstances? How did he use his influence and money, his own life, and that of his servants and assistants to make these instruments function as intended? How did all this effect his private experiences?
These questions at the center of what I call the investigation of an instrumental life. But I am also concerned with the question how to connect these questions of private experience and emotions with more public roles of instruments in science and technology. This would make it possible to tie Humboldt's experiences and emotions back into the fold of the life of any of us. That is, are there certain structural aspects to Humboldt's instrumental life that could be invariances of private lives since they reflect the public life of instruments as these shape the experiences of each and every user?"]
The Paradox of Disconfirming Confirmation
According to Bayes Theorem:
Evidence is called positive if
P(hypothesis|evidence) > P(hypothesis)
and negative if the inequality is reversed.
In many cases of scientific reasoning a theory or hypothesis on its own will not allow the calculation of predictions; one needs to apply the theory in a model with its own boundary conditions and initial conditions, together called auxiliary assumptions, say, a. In that case h + a together imply e, and thus P(e|h&a) = 1. The paradox of disconfirming evidence, which I have not yet seen identified or discussed in the literature, is that there are cases where, even though P(h&a|e) > P(h&a), that is, e is positive evidence for h&a, e is negative evidence for both h and a, that is
P(h|e) < P(h)
P(a|e) < P(a)
German resistance to sampling around 1900: 'Types' and the Inverse Bernoulli Theorem
The German statistician Georg von Mayr (1841-1925) was one the most severe and persistent critics of Kiaer's plea for the representative method at the 1894 Berne meeting of the International Statistical Institute.
von Mayr was no newcomer to the debate about sampling, or the Stichproben method. Before the Berne meeting he had already become entangled in an disagreement about sampling with Hans von Scheel, the head of the Reichsstatistiek and chairman of the Kommission für Arbeiterstatistiek. The committee had used sampling in an 1892 investigation of the working conditions of baker-apprentices. von Mayr rejected estimates based on sampling as subjective and unfounded and insisted that all statistics should be based on a complete survey of its target population.
Logically, von Mayr took to its extreme an argument of Gustav Rümelin of 1863 that inductive reasoning is ill-suited for human populations, because of the utter variety of people. Rümelin argued that the statistical method should replace it.
But - and this explains the vigor and shrillness of his voice - for von Mayr, regularly partaking in statistical surveys was also the way of life of an ideal society. Surveys should be held at regular time intervals, and on all kinds of issues pertinent to the general interests - independent of the current political debate -. Everybody should participate, to create a Tradition von Fragenden und Befragten [A Tradition of Questioners and Respondents]. To avoid the intrusion of partisan interest, surveys should be organized by the State. Their results should be available to everybody.
Thus, not only the information obtained by the general surveys was essential for the informed political discussion, also the process by which this information was gathered, the exhaustive questioning of all and everyone, should contribute to a public interest in statical information.
Although the representative method became more and more prevalent after the turn of the century - especially in city statistics and because of the pressures of the Great War - von Mayr's warnings kept echoing through German Statistics. Textbooks granted the unavoidability of sampling but warned against its dangers. Papers and monographs would detail its limitations. For instance, a dissertation by Fritz Huhle of 1933 investigates the standard justification of the method by the Law of Large Numbers, interpreted in terms of an inverse Bernoulli Theorem, and finds it wanting. Said in present day terminology, Huhle raised the issue of multiplicity, and the need for simultaneous confidence intervals.
The perspective I wish to argue for is that we should not look at the development of formal statistical methods as just providing increasingly better solutions to the same problems. What counts as better may change depending on what way of life , of living and working with the method, is seen as desirable. Georg von Mayr, in the 1890s, thought a society in which everbody regularly answers - as a matter of course - questions about profit, income, housing, work, schooling, marriage, religion, prices, and so on, to be desirable. For him this stood for open discussion, equality of the four classes, participation of everyone in the public domain. A society without secrets: when aggregated, these statistics should be available, and of interests, to everyone. [Read at the London School of Economics, June 29, 1993]
To become an epistemic subject the Scanning Tunneling Microscope has to have build-in theoretical assumptions about its own workings
1. Tripe anecdote
2. Marvel of the stomach: why does it not self-digest, or digest itself.
3. The senses: why does the eye not see itself; why in touching do we not feel the shape of our own finger. The scanning tunneling microscope.
4. Turn to scientific instruments: extending vs. replacing the senses/the body. (proprioceptive sense) The case of the blind man guiding stick. the volvo or was it saab adverticement.
5. looking at the instrument rather than thru the instrument.
6. other contrast: the instrument becomes an epistemic subject on its own.
7. Has the STM become such an subject? Is the image a structural similarity to the specimen or is it a conflation. of itself and the specimen.
8. Evidence for tip imaging in scanning tunneling microscopy. (van Loenen et al. Philips Lab Einthoven)
9. Identify and remove artefacts. Strictly empirically: on the bases of measurements and manipulations, without the use of a model; semi-empirically: a combination of measurement and model.
10. Theory of the instrument: scanning speed. (Feuchtwang, Notea).
11. Smart instruments: contain models of themselves and transform signals to make corrections on the basis of substantive assumptions about the specimen before imaging.
To become epistemic subjects the STM has to have build-in theoretical assumptions about its own workings.
[Commentary on Ian Hacking's talk on the scanning tunneling microscope]
Automation in instrumentation: the changing place of the observer in the nineteenth century.
Traditionally, observational instruments have been seen as extensions of the senses, providing an observer with increased range and sensitivity. A contrary analysis, argued for in this talk with particular attention to nineteenth century developments, holds that increasingly the use of instruments has led to "observation without an observing subject," to the point that the role of the scientist as spectator of Nature has shifted from looking at Nature to looking at data sets.
An important factor in this development has been automation in data recording. Originating often in technological contexts, and implemented for utilitarian reasons, automation proved to have epistemic advantages for scientific instrumentation. It constitutes a significant transferal of experimental techniques and organizational structure from technology to science.
An Anonymous Publication Attacking d'Alembert's Analysis of the St Petersburg Problem
This is a discussion of an anonymous publication attacking d'Alembert's maturity of chance analysis of the St Petersburg Problem. I have been able to identify only one copy of this publication, in the Crear Library of the University of Chicago. I have traced this copy back to a Berlin bookseller who offered it for sale in a catalogue that is said to include a large part of the libarary of the French probabilist I. J. Bienaymé.
Anonymous. 1801. Réfutation de quelques erreurs singulières de Mr D'Alembert sur les principes du calcul des probabilités et solution d'un problème connu sous le nom de problème de Petersbourg sur le jeu de croix et pile, que personne n'avait résolu jusqu'à présent et que Mr. D'Alembert a jugé insoluble. [Paris?]  112p.
Is NOA a child of Pyrrhonian scepticism?
Protagoras: Constructivists, Instrumentalists, Conventionalists
Sextus: NOAers (Natural Ontological Attitude)
Academics: Constructive Empiricists
We cannot actually do more, with regard to existence claims, than following scientific practice? [Shaky Game, p. 132]
What binds realism and antirealism together is this. They see science as a set of practices in need of an interpretation [Shaky Game, p. 148]
NOA is basically at odds with the temperament that looks for definite boundaries demarcating science from pseudoscience. Indeed, the antiessentialist aspect of NoA is intended to be very comprehensive, appulying to all the concepts used in science, even the concept of truth. [Shaky Game, p. 149]
If NOA does not draw a sharp line between the scientific and the non-scientific, why does it appear to draw such a line between the philosophical and the non-philosophical.
I.e., can we not look at the realism/antirealism debate as a debate both local and continuous with the many debates on smaller issues in science? Continuous with the many debates within science to develop methods to separate the real from the artifact, the construct, the object from the subject.
The Known is transforming the knower and itself trough the knower in order to become known to itself.
Theory, in the English Department sense, is both local in its modes of argumentation and broad ranging in its survey of material.
What is the impact, on local induction, of a knowledge of the history of science, viz. that most knowledge-claims have been at some point dethroned from the unassailable position they seem to have up to that point?
The Role of the "Typus" in Induction and the Resistance to Sampling in the 19th c.
(Discusses the 19th c. German point of view that in the physical sciences induction is possible since there "das Einzelne ist Typisch," while when we climb the Ladder of Being, and arrive via Savages and Women, at Men, members of the same species become less and less typical and universal statements about them cannot be made anymore. Here Statistics comes in, and its proper method is the complete investigation of populations by censuses. Inference from a sample to the population would amount to induction and is not reliable.)
The Doings in Inferring.
(Reasonable inference to a causal conclusion requires that certain behavioral and institutional conditions are satisfied. History of the discovery of these conditions in the case of German agricultural experiments in the 19th century. Inevitability of a circularity in scientific methodology in terms of practical knowledge or "knowledge how" and analysis of a notion of experience that is broader than 'observation')
Stable Frequencies and Maturing Chances in 19th c. Statistical Thinking
(Discusses the search for an explanation of statistical stability after d'Alembert. Writers discussed include Lichtenberg, Ellis, Peirce and Marbe, and the author of an anonymous, French publication attacking d'Alembert.)
Virtual Witnesses: Hearsay or Worse?
(Critique of Steven Shapin's Reading of Robert Boyle. Shapin has argued that Boyle considered the readers of his experimental reports to have a similar epistemological role as those gentlemen that he invited in his laboratory to witness the proceedings and to validate his observations. I show that this interpretation is not supported by the texts and does ill accord with theories of evidence of Boyle's contemporaries.) Read at the XVIIIth International Congress of History of Science, 1-9 August 1989 - Hamburg and Munchen
The Development of Probability Theory from the Beginnings up to 1933. Introductions and Texts.
Reader with classical texts in probability theory, statistics and data analysis; description of instruments, questionnaires.
A Philosophy of Scientific Instruments
Experimental Randomization, Part I: Its Practical Basis
(Experimental randomization can be justified within Bayesian decision theory. The agent may believe that allocations not obtained by an objective chance device tend to be biased. Information relevant to conducting statistical experiments may not available for inference but is available for the design of the experiment. This goes beyond Bayesian decision theory and criticizes the Principle of Total Evidence. An evaluation of the support experimental data provide for different hypotheses should be preceded by an evaluation of the data to check whether the intended design, including the randomization, was properly executed.) Conditionally accepted by Synthese
Experimental Randomization, Part II: Ancillarity, Conditionality, and Randomization
(Discusses the standard argument against experimental randomization that, since the design is an ancillary statistics, statistical inference should not depend on it and should be performed conditional on the observed value of the design variable. Common significance tests seemingly using the full design space to quantify the strength of evidence against a null hypothesis (so-called randomization tests) are therefore invalidated. But without experimental randomization the design selecting mechanism may not be an ancillary statistics, so that statistical analysis may depend on whether randomization has taken place. So the standard argument is at best an argument against some tests based on physical randomization. Randomization tests are shown to make use of epistemological symmetries present before the experiment is performed. Randomization is performed to preserve these symmetries: the probability space used in the calculation of significance levels is not created by the physical act of randomization but only preserved by it. The paper extends a framework to study foundational issues in statistical inference due to Allan Birnbaum.)
Can Probabilistic Explanations Explain When the Setting is Deterministic?
(Yes, they may; using a stochastic model for the evolution of the solar system to explain the Titius-Bode Law, the paper argues that such explanations provide an account of the lawlikeness of macro features of physical systems that could not have been given by a fully deterministic account.)
Statistical Thinking as a Source of Post-Cartesian Epistemology
[Read at the University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC on12/9/89]
Randomization as a Technique to Deal with Background in Physical Experiments
On a proposed Dutch Book Argument for a Principal Principal regarding von Mises Collectives
[On an argument by Howson and Urbach]
To appear in Mathematical Reviews
Review of William A. Dembski. 1998. The Design Inference. Eliminating chance through small probabilities. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press
Review of Oscar B. Sheynin. 1999. "The discovery of the principle of least squares." Historia Scientiarum (2), 8(3), 249-264.
Review of Thomas Augustin. 1998. Optimale Tests bei Intervallwahrscheinlichkeit. Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht.
Languages : Dutch (native), English, German, French, Classical Greek and Latin
Professional Organizations :
American Philosophical Association Philosophy of Science Association History of Science Society The New York Academy of Sciences American Association for the Advancement of Science Genootschap voor Geschiedenis der Geneeskunde, Wiskunde, Natuurwetenschappen en Techniek Vereniging voor Exacte Wijsbegeerte American Statistical Association
Awards and Honors:
Fellowship of the Polish Government (76/77) Alexander von Humboldt-Stipend (82/83) Research Grant from the Dutch Organization for Scientific Research (85/86) Research Grant from the Max Planck-Gesellschaft (95/96) Last Updated 08/01 ZGS